2026 mortgage rate forecast: Fannie Mae, MBA and NAR
These dated national outlooks use different measurement periods and assumptions. Here are the dated sources and limits to know before using them in an Austin or Texas plan.
As of August 31, 2026, Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association, and the National Association of Realtors had each published a national 2026 mortgage-rate outlook, but their quarterly and full-year measures are not directly interchangeable. These are dated projections, not a personal rate, APR, guarantee, or commitment to lend. The source links below identify each publisher's dated edition.
Dated 2026 mortgage-rate forecasts
Fannie Mae's August 13, 2026 Housing Forecast published quarterly and full-year national averages through 2027. Its table identifies the 2026 third-quarter, fourth-quarter, and annual outlooks.
MBA's August 20, 2026 Mortgage Finance Forecast published quarterly national projections. MBA notes that its annual mortgage-rate column reports the fourth-quarter value, not a full-year average.
NAR's June 16, 2026 outlook published a full-year national average outlook for 2026.
How to compare the outlooks
Quarterly averages, fourth-quarter values, and full-year averages are not interchangeable. A fourth-quarter projection can differ from a full-year annual average because earlier quarters are part of the full-year calculation. Always compare the period, publication date, and source before treating two outlooks as a disagreement.
For observed context, Freddie Mac's PMMS published its latest weekly national benchmark on September 10, 2026. That is a benchmark built from eligible mortgage applications, not a forecast, approval, locked rate, APR, or personal quote.
How to use a forecast
Use forecasts to stress-test a range of payments, not to time an exact bottom. Decide the payment that works for you, compare a buy-now plan with a wait plan in the directional 2026 rate guide, and use current lender pricing for the decision in front of you.
Forecasts can be revised, and a national average is not a personal quote. If rates later fall, a refinance may be worth reviewing, subject to eligibility, costs, and the broader plan.
Common questions
What is the mortgage rate forecast for 2026?
As of August 31, 2026, Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association, and the National Association of Realtors had each published a national 2026 mortgage-rate outlook, but their quarterly and full-year measures are not directly interchangeable. These are projections, not personal quotes, APRs, or guarantees; use the dated source links for each publisher's published figures.
Are mortgage rate forecasts reliable?
They are informed projections, not promises, and they are revised often. Different groups model the same economy with different assumptions, so their forecasts diverge and can change as new data arrives. Use them for direction and context, not as a number to bet your purchase on.
Who publishes mortgage rate forecasts?
Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association, and the National Association of Realtors publish widely cited projections. Freddie Mac's PMMS publishes an observed weekly national benchmark, which is useful context but is not itself a forecast or a personal quote.
Do Fed rate cuts mean mortgage rates will fall?
Not automatically. Federal Reserve policy can influence financial conditions and expectations, while mortgage pricing also reflects longer-term yields, mortgage-backed securities, lender costs and risk, and borrower-specific factors.
Context beats a guess
I will keep an eye on the live market and your range so you act on real movement, not a projection. Start with Rate Watch.