[fed-sep-2024.jpg pending]
Sep 18, 2024−50 bps
"Mortgage rates will drop"
Climbed for the next three months
From a former professional futures trader
The Fed doesn't move mortgage rates. Banks do.
Before I was a Texas mortgage broker, I traded firms' capital across multiple proprietary trading firms. Paid from my P&L, not a salary. The chart I read every day back then is the same one that drives what mortgage-backed securities track today. MBS spreads, lender margin, and credit overlays move what you actually get quoted, but the 10-year Treasury futures (ZN1!) and U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) set the floor. I still read those charts. When the rate environment moves in your favor, I call.
For homeowners on a rate they don't want, and buyers who would refinance the second the math worked.
Case Laviolette · NMLS #2025459 · Kellibrooke Mortgage Partners, LLC · NMLS #2022197
Why mortgage rates actually move
The Fed Funds rate isn't your mortgage rate.
Most borrowers don't know this. A lot of loan officers don't fully understand it either. When the Federal Reserve cuts the Fed Funds rate, the news headline says "rates are dropping." But the Fed Funds rate is the cost of overnight bank lending. It is not the price of 30-year mortgage debt. Different market, different mechanics.
Your mortgage rate rides the 10-year Treasury yield. Banks set that yield by analyzing two things every single day. Can borrowers repay their loans. And will lending demand hold up. Employment data, consumer credit health, default trends, housing inventory, the refi pipeline. That is what banks are pricing. The Fed is one input. Often a small one.
The receipts
Six Fed cuts. Six times mortgage rates went up.
Between September 2024 and December 2025, the Federal Reserve cut its target rate six times. 175 basis points cumulative. Every news cycle around every cut printed the same kind of headline. "Rates are dropping. Refinance now." What actually happened to mortgage rates each time:
Each card below pairs the Fed cut date with what the 10-year Treasury futures chart (ZN1!) actually did. The chart is the real price of mortgage debt. The news framing is the public story. The reality is what borrowers paid.
[fed-nov-2024.jpg pending]
Nov 7, 2024−25 bps
"Lower rates ahead"
Climbed
[fed-dec-2024.jpg pending]
Dec 18, 2024−25 bps
"Cuts continuing"
Spiked higher within days
[fed-sep-2025.jpg pending]
Sep 17, 2025−25 bps
"Refi window opening"
Climbed
[fed-oct-2025.jpg pending]
Oct 29, 2025−25 bps
"Fed easing cycle"
Climbed
[fed-dec-2025.jpg pending]
Dec 10, 2025−25 bps
"Time to lock"
Climbed
The pattern repeats. Bonds rally into the expected cut. Smart money is front-running the announcement. The Fed announces. Bonds sell off. Mortgage rates climb in the days after, which is exactly when the average borrower calls their lender to refinance on the headline.
Past market behavior shown above is not a guarantee of future rate movement. Educational only.
The anti-receipts
The days that mattered had no headline.
Now look at the inverse. The days mortgage rates dropped to the lows of the cycle, when banks repriced the 10-year significantly in borrowers' favor, did not have a Fed meeting. Did not have a CPI release. Did not have a headline the average borrower would have heard about. They just had a chart that moved.
April 4, 2025 · A Friday
The best lock window of a 14-month cycle
No Fed meeting that week. No CPI release. No headline. ZN1! spiked to 114'10'0, the highest level for the following 13+ months. Mortgage rates dropped sharply that day. The window was narrow. Rates climbed back over the following weeks. Anyone watching the chart had the lock of the year. Anyone watching the news heard nothing.
[Chart screenshot pending]apr-4-2025.jpg
The Friday spike to 114'10'0. Top of the cycle. No news.
The Friday spike to 114'10'0. Top of the cycle. No news.
February 27, 2026 · Another Friday
A near-yearly high, on a day no one was watching
ZN1! spiked to its highest level in nearly a year in a single trading session. No FOMC. No major data release. No headline. Mortgage rates dropped sharply, then climbed back over the weeks that followed. If you were waiting for the news to tell you when to refinance, you missed it entirely.
[Chart screenshot pending]feb-27-2026.jpg
The Friday spike. Same shape, eleven months later. Same silence.
The Friday spike. Same shape, eleven months later. Same silence.
If no one was watching the chart for you on April 4, 2025, who is going to call you next time?
Historical market behavior shown above is illustrative and is not a guarantee of future rate movement or any specific outcome for any individual borrower. Educational only.
What that meant in dollars
April 4, 2025 vs. today, on a hypothetical mortgage.
Consider a hypothetical borrower with a $400,000 mortgage balance who refinanced into a 30-year fixed at the rate environment available on April 4, 2025. Compare that to the same borrower refinancing into today's rate environment, held to full term. The difference in lifetime interest, illustrative only:
Over $70,000
illustrative lifetime interest difference on a hypothetical $400,000 30-year fixed mortgage held to full term, based on an assumed 0.6 to 0.75 percent rate differential between the April 4, 2025 rate environment and today's.
Roughly $200 to $250 in monthly cash flow. Every month, for 30 years.
Illustrative example only. Based on a hypothetical $400,000 30-year fixed-rate mortgage held to full term, with an assumed 0.6 to 0.75 percent rate differential derived from public ZN1! futures movement between April 4, 2025 and today. This illustration does not reflect APR, points, closing costs, or fees, all of which affect total cost of credit. Your actual APR will differ from any rate referenced and depends on your specific scenario. Not a rate quote or commitment to lend. Actual outcomes depend on loan size, current rate, credit, term, closing costs, and holding period. See footer for full hypothetical-scenarios disclosure.
That's the cost of waiting for a headline that was never coming. The borrowers who got the lock on April 4, 2025 didn't get it because the news told them to. They got it because someone was watching the chart for them. How I do that:
How it works
What happens once you're on the list.
I read the chart
The 10-year Treasury futures (ZN1!), monthly timeframe, marked up with supply and demand zones I derive from prior market shifts. Those zones are the price levels where mortgage rates have meaningful action. Both above the current price (refi triggers) and below it (rates breaking higher, lock zones for buyers).
Alerts are set at the levels that matter
TradingView alerts, placed just below each trigger so I get the heads-up before the move completes. Three above the current price for refinance triggers. Two below the current price for buyers who need to lock before rates move against them.
When an alert fires, I call
Not an email blast. Not a generic newsletter. A phone call to the people on the list whose current scenario actually benefits from the level that just hit. I explain what happened in the market, what it means for your specific situation, and whether it is worth acting on. If it isn't, I'll say so.
[Chart screenshot pending]zn1-monthly-system.jpg
The monthly ZN1! chart with every level marked.
Refi trigger zones above the current price. Buyer lock zones below.
The monthly ZN1! chart with every level marked.
Refi trigger zones above the current price. Buyer lock zones below.
That's the whole product. No subscription. No fee. Just a list of people I'll call when the math actually works in their favor. Could be next week. Could be next year. No newsletter in between.
When the call comes
Your scenario gets a real conversation.
If your credit dropped, I have rapid-rescore partners and I route through them first (they refer back, and I disclose that connection up front). If you're already in process with another lender, send me the loan estimate and I'll tell you honestly whether their offer is better than what I can do. If closing costs are the blocker, most refis I structure are zero out-of-pocket through a lender credit on the rate or by rolling minor costs into the loan, while your monthly cash flow and lifetime interest still drop.
Not a sales pitch. A straight answer, every time, before you commit to anything.
Get on the list
Two products. You pick.
One form. Two checkboxes. Pick either or both. Unsubscribe from either independently. I won't combine them or assume you wanted both.